Home > Big Ideas > What the Republican Primaries Tell Us About Everything in the Entire World (including Business)

I’m a total political junkie. I love following Presidential elections, especially this year’s Republican nomination. The Republican polls and primary results have been more volatile than usual this year. The field is wide open. No one knows what’s going to happen next.

One of the interesting things about following the primaries is watching the political pundits. Two things have been consistent throughout:

1. The pundits present their ideas as though they are facts, or at least inevitabilities: (“Romney will win”, “Gingrich is finished”, “Gingrich will win”).
2. The pundits are consistently wrong.

This year’s primaries have been striking because the conventional wisdom of the pundits has changed so dramatically.

A few examples:

• The pundits considered Governors Tim Pawlenty and Rick Perry formidable, top-tier candidates. Until…Pawlenty and Perry were two of the first candidates to drop out of the race.
• Last summer, the pundits said that the Gingrich’s campaign was over. Now he is one of the final four candidates left standing.
• After the New Hampshire primary, the pundits said that Romney was the inevitable winner, and that he could even finish off the race by February. Now Romney is struggling in the polls against Rick Santorum (a candidate that the pundits considered an also-ran).

In short, no one knows what is going to happen.

The conventional wisdom that surrounds the Republican primaries is an interesting lens through which to look at the world. We are constantly bombarded with conventional wisdom. On all topics from fashion to success to money.

I know that when I am in an uncertain situation, I have a tendency to look for the conventional wisdom. The authority figure who knows what she is talking about. To look for the correct answer. The thing is: oftentimes there isn’t one.

Image Credit: DonkeyHotey